CML 1973 AL Review

AL East

Red Sox	1972 record 88-74	1973 predicted 92-70		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Pete Richert	Players Gained	SP Larry Arensburg, 3B Alan Morabito, 3B Xavier Caspari, and C Earl Williams	$136.3 Million
Draft Picks None The Red Sox are a win now organization and they traded their pick. Draft Grade Incomplete
The Red Sox have upgraded their pitching staff with the addition of Ace Larry Arensburg. This move gives the Sox 3 starters with a predicted ERA under 2.80 and their #4 and #5 starters have predicted ERA’s under 3.10. There isn’t a stronger rotation in the American League. The were able to re-sign Norm Cash for the league minimum. I don’t know if that was ingenious or a lack of smarts of the other owners. With the addition of Morabito and Caspari, it looks like Cash will become the first DH for the Red Sox. The lineup is solid and the defense ain’t too shabby. I don’t see any glaring weakness on this team, other than the huge payroll. The Red Sox should regain their spot as one of the teams to beat in the AL.

Baltimore Orioles	1972 record 91-71	1973 predicted 89-73		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Paul Splitorff and RF Paul MacMillan	Players Gained	SP Pete Richert and CF Mickey Mantle	$65.5 Million
Draft Picks C John Wockenfuss, RP Aurelio Lopez, and 1B Mike Hargrove. No All Stars in this group. They should become decent role players though. I questioned taking Wockenfuss when some decent young arms were available. Draft Grade C
The Orioles don’t appear to be much better than last year. They have lost 2 key components from last season and their replacement’s are good but definitely not upgrades. Not sure who the DH will be. The team is solid, it just doesn’t strike me as a playoff contender. The pitching, defense, and hitting fall short. They had a chance to upgrade this year, but they struck out in free agency. Their payroll is pretty low so maybe they can acquire some talent through a salary dump. I just don’t see them matching up with the Red Sox and they will once again finish in 2^nd place.

New York Yankees	1972 record 77-85	1973 predicted 77-85		Payroll
Players Lost	RP Fred Linzy, 2B Jose Filho and RF Michael Costanza.	Players Gained	SP Bill Parsons, LF Juan Salvador, 2B Tom Louie, and CF Will Callan	$77.6 Million
Draft Picks SP Ed Figueroa. Pretty good pick for a draft that didn’t have too many options. Figueroa should turn into a good pitcher. Draft Grade B
The Yankees are still going to take a back seat to the Sox and O’s. The acquisition of 2B Louie fills the hole left by Filho. Good signings in free agency, but they still don’t have any superstars in their lineup and a rotation that fall short after Moose and Wise. The contract of C Jason Deegan continues to hurt this team. Bill Parsons improves the back of their rotation, but he is not enough. Their weak bullpen will hurt them dearly. Because it appears that this team should end up in allot of close games. Not sure when this team will turn it around. With little in their minor league system, the Yanks can only wait until contracts end or start moving whatever talent they have to stock their minor leagues. They lack the payroll flexibility to make a splash in free agency.

Cleveland Indians	1972 record 55-107	1973 predicted 51-111		Payroll
Players Lost	SS Luis Aparicio and LF Greg Luzinski.	Players Gained	LF Carl Yastrzemski	$76.1 Million
Draft Picks C Gary Carter and C Jim Sundberg. I believe Carter was a reach at the 4^th spot. Especially considering they only received Yastrzemski and $1 million for him. Sundberg was a great pick. He could turn out to be a very good catcher. Draft Grade B-
The Indians continue to maintain their all “real” player roster. They are in desperate need of an infusion of new players. The team does bring back great memories of baseball from yesteryear. The team has 4 key players from the Big Red Machine. But memories don’t win ballgames. The likes of Clemente, Colavito, Mays, McDowell, and Koufax have nothing left to give. As long as they are getting appearances in games, the Tribe will remain in the cellar.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers	1972 record 102-60	1973 predicted 97-65		Payroll
Players Lost	RP Ron Perranoski and 3B Alberto Velloso.	Players Gained	No one of any significance	$100.6 Million
Draft Picks LF Jerry Mumphrey. He should be a decent outfielder after some time in AAA. Draft Grade B
The Tigers have been masterful at re-loading their major league club through their minor league system. The entire lineup is filled with players from their farm system. SP Dick Bosman is the only key player that isn’t homegrown, kudos to the fine work of their GM. Their pitching staff is similar to last year’s. The closer role could be filled with Vicente Romo or Elias Sosa. Both should be capable of the job. New additions to the starting lineup will be Pablo Queiro at firstbase and Jaime Ahloe or Enos Cabel will take over at third. The offense won’t skip a beat. The Tigers rotation is the strength of this team, 2^nd only to the staff of the Red Sox. The bullpen could use an upgrade, but the team as a whole should be able to hold off the White Sox.

Chicago White Sox	1972 record 108-54	1973 predicted 95-67		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Larry Arensburg, SS Mark Belanger, and RF Luis Armstrong.	Players Gained	RP Nicholas Smith, SS Bud Harrelson, RF George Hendrick, LF Joe Baruch, and 1B Earl Newmark.	$99.0 Million
Draft Picks None The White Sox are a win now organization and they traded their pick. Draft Grade Incomplete
The White Sox are still a premier team. The loss of Larry Arensburg will hurt the most, his loss drops the White Sox from the best to about the 4^th best rotation in the AL. Harrelson takes over at short for annual Gold Glover Mark Belanger. His defense will be missed, although they have improved defensively at 1B, LF and RF. They do have 1B Trevor Golia back from a season on the DL. His return will bolster an already potent lineup. New LF’er Baruch is a slight upgrade over Billy Williams. The White Sox, who were vocal about the Detroit Tigers moving in their division, will not be pleased if they finish second to Detroit. The team is a force to be reckoned with and will be the first wild card team in the AL or Central Division Champions, again.

Minnesota Twins	1972 record 85-77	1973 predicted 91-71		Payroll
Players Lost	SS Tim Foli and CF Wil Callan.	Players Gained	RF Paul MacMillan, SS Luis Aparicio, CF Elliott Maddox, SS John Ryskina, SS Toby Bridgers, and RF David Warden.	$106.2 Million
Draft Picks None The Twins are a win now organization and they traded their pick. Draft Grade Incomplete
The Twins have their work cut out for them. They are in a division with 2 AL powerhouses and they lack the pitching to knock them off. The team is strong, I just do not believe it’s enough to pass either the Tigers or White Sox. The pitching staff remains unchanged from last season. It’s an area where they could have improved and then launched themselves into contention for the Division Crown. They filled some needs in free agency, but I feel they could have spent some money on pitching. The signing of Paul MacMillan puzzles me. While he is an upgrade, is he worth $6.8 million? The Twins have a good team, but they still aren’t ready to trample the big dawgs and their payroll makes their window of opportunity a sliver.

Milwaukee Brewers	1972 record 48-114	1973 predicted 40-122		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Don Drysdale, SP Wayne Simpson, SP Bill Parsons, C Ted Simmons, and 3B Pedro Bielski.	Players Gained	SP Clay Patton, RF Michael Costanza, and 1B Karl Persky.	$35.9 Million
Draft Picks CF Fred Lynn, 3B Ray Knight, P Vern Ruhle, and 3B Art Howe. The Brewers re-stocked their minor leagues. While they needed pitching, they drafted the best available player. With a team with so many holes, it was the best move. If they can acquire some other prospects for the recently drafted thirdbasemen, their draft grade goes up. Draft Grade A-
The Brewers were nothing short of horrible last season. It should be more of the same this season since most of the talent is in AAA. Losing 3 starting pitchers from last season and only signing one through free agency is going to make Milwaukee fans thankful the beer pours freely at County Stadium. It will be the place where losing streaks die. The Brew Crew is in full re-building mode and the only thing that describes them is “ugly”.

AL West

Oakland A’s	1972 record 83-79	1973 predicted 89-73		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Joe Decker, C Victor Steele, 3B Xavier Caspari, and RF Don Swaner.	Players Gained	SP Herb Score, RP Clay Carroll, 3B Mike Schmidt, and LF Carlos Huertas.	$71.5 Million
Draft Picks CF Ron LeFlore, LF Sixto Lezcano, and 3B Larry Parrish. The A’s did a good job in the draft. Lezcano may become the steal of the draft, is peak is 3 yrs away and is a complete player. Draft Grade A
The West is the weakest division, but should be the most exciting to watch. A’s are on the move. They acquired a young superstar in the Mike Schmidt sweepstakes from KC. They took advantage of the Royals financial plight and are taking on some bad contracts to have Schmidt. His offense should counter the loss of catcher Victor Steele who signed with the Astros for over $11 million. It will be interesting to see if C Brian Downing gets promoted or if they’ll start the season with Quentin Pieper behind the plate and if CF Al Bumbry starts the season in center. While the team would struggle in the other divisions, the A’s should be good enough to win the AL West.

California Angels	1972 record 89-73	1973 predicted 88-74		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Trent Nguyen and RF Phil Burgess.	Players Gained	RP Andy Hassler, SS Ozzie Writer, and 3B Jules Bellingham.	$112.9 Million
Draft Picks SP Bob Forsch The Angels went for pitching and drafted Forsch, who should become an adequate end of the rotation starter. With the 16^th pick, it wasn’t a bad move. Draft Grade B
The Angels are still a force in the AL West. The loss of ace Trent Nguyen drops this staff from the top 5 to outside the top 10. While they still have capable arms in Merritt and Siebert, they drop off drastically after them. The lineup is still solid, but it could use improvement at RF and DH. Both spots could be easy to upgrade and launch the Angels to the front of the AL West. Their overall defense is outstanding. While the corner OF spots are weak, they have one of the best CF’ers in baseball helping them out. The signing of SS Ozzie Writer will help this team on offense and defense. But I don’t believe he is enough to counter the loss of SP Trent Nguyen and RF Phil Burgess.

Texas Rangers	1972 record 61-101	1973 predicted 87-75		Payroll
Players Lost	No one of any significance.	Players Gained	SP Allen McGovern, RP Barry Lersch, RP Chuck Taylor, P Roger Nelson, SS Harry Denisoff, SS Mark Belanger, and LF Kelvin Dubriwny.	$72.8 Million
Draft Picks LF Larry Herndon, SP John Denny, SP Dennis Leonard, LF Miguel Dilone The Rangers did very well in the draft. If patient enough Herndon, will be a star. They did very well getting 2 back of the rotation starters for the future. Draft Grade A
The Rangers season depends heavily on if they promote Ace Steve Rogers and if he performs as advertised. They did well in free agency in re-building their lineup. Denisoff and Dubriwny are major upgrades over last season. Gene Clines has to do better than his weak debut season in 1972. They could still use upgrades at 2B and 3B to make this a truly potent lineup. While their rotation lacks any stars (with the exception of Rogers), it is serviceable from top to bottom. Add to that one of the strongest bullpen’s in the AL and their pitching should be fine. If things go right the could end up challenging the A’s and Angels for the top spot.

Kansas City Royals	1972 record 85-77	1973 predicted 68-94		Payroll
Players Lost	SP Herb Score, SP Keith Bachman, 2B Dan Hellesto, 3B Mike Schmidt, and CF Willie Davis.	Players Gained	LF William Svidler	$45.2 Million
Draft Picks None The Royals owner is on “sabbatical” and they traded their pick due to lack of time. Draft Grade Incomplete
The Royals have trimmed over $30 million in payroll. The only talent the Royals are truly going to miss is that of thirdbaseman Mike Schmidt. After seasons of free spending, they were forced to regroup. Vanderhoof and Barcone are the only hitters that will concern opposing pitchers. Pitching staff is adequate but will struggle to win half their games. The Royals have made the first step in rebuilding by gutting payroll. I’m sure in pained them to trade Schmidt, but this team was going nowhere and the GM knew it. Their minor league system is also weak, they’ll either spend years drafting and waiting. Or make a splash in free agency in the coming years.