CML 1973 NL Review
NL East
The
overall prediction for the NL East: The Mets will be in the playoffs yet again.
The Mets lost Veale and Denisoff...who cares? Well, the Mets don't. They went
out and picked up Andy Bishop and already had enough in the fold to supplant the
loss of Veale. That fact alone is scary. They will take it easily despite Veale
now going to division rival, Philadelphia.
Here's the team-by-team breakdown of the NL East along with their odds of a
division championship:
New York Mets - 2:1
Hitting: B
They won't overpower you. In fact, you might fall asleep watching them. They are
patient hitters though, and will come through in the clutch. The addition of
Burgess will help them greatly in this department. Also, if Andy Bishop can find
the stroke he had in AAA, this might turn into a lineup that could beat you
unconscious.
Fielding: A-
They got a gold glover at SS and 3B. Not a bad start. Morgan is solid at 2B and
the outfield is about average. The only real hole is the D at 1B, but the bench
is so deep in the defense department, they won't need to worry.
Starting Pitching: A
Ok...Bob Veale is gone...so what. Steve Carlton is the new anchor of this ship
coming off a Cy Young season. The only real question is who will take the 5th
slot...my money's on Dean Chance who's had good luck in the past as a starter
with Texas.
Bullpen and Bench: A
The bench is deep defensively and has a few good sticks there. The bullpen does
the job too, led by premier closer, Bill Pool who has had at least 40 saves in
every full season with the Mets.
Philadelphia Phillies - 5:1
Hitting: C+
There isn't much power here...in fact...there's not much there at all. Morabito
will make a case for an MVP if he can get some support. Unfortunately for him,
Luis Armstrong ain't gonna cut it.
Fielding: A
This group is pretty good. Helmuth is a rock at SS and the addition of Filho
solidifies them up the middle. Morabito isn't much, but picking up Gille should
help in that situation...maybe even allow Morabito to get moved to 1st. The
outfield is going to be solid with the addition of 7 time Gold Glover Luis
Armstrong.
Starting Rotation: B
Veale...good but old...same thing goes for Bahnsen and Kline. These 3 are going
to have to carry the load and I just don't think they'll be able to shoulder it.
To go up against the Mets 5, the matchup isn't even close.
Bullpen and Bench: C
With no bonafied closer and an up-and-down bullpen, they could be in trouble.
The bench isn't very deep either as it lacks backup defense and not much in the
hitting department.
Montreal Expos - 5:1
Hitting: C
Aside from Bauer, there isn't much here. Bates will probably hit 20 HRs, but
they'll all probably be solo shots. These guys are just too old.
Fielding: C-
Bauer is good, Murato is too. Brinkman ain't bad either. The rest...ouch. Tommy
Davis needs to retire...I think his glove has a bigger hole than Martha
Stewart's Alibi.
Starting Pitching: C+
They have good starters but they are all on the downsides of their career. If
they can stay out of the old-folks home, they might be able to scrape a wild
card birth in...but that's it.
Bullpen and Bench: B
Blaine Arios...star closer...say what? 43 saves in 45 opportunities...amazing
for a guy who bounced between 6 teams in 7 years. Even so, he'll need Selma
there to help him out again. Those two are a good combo for a pen that is
mediocre behind them. The bench is solid with a good combo of vets ready to make
a contribution.
Pittsburgh Pirates - 30:1
Hitting: C-
Aside from Fisk, there isn't much to worry about here. Even Fisk is afraid of
Fisk. You won't find a bigger yo-yo in terms of performance year to year. Oliva
might provide some support, but he hasn't given that kind of performance on a
consistant basis.
Fielding: B-
Cash will probably snag another gold glove but aside from him, there are a ton
of question marks. If Beltre starts, that will help them but there are just too
many holes.
Starting Pitching: C+
Jenkins is a stud, but he's also in his walk year on a team that will be
in major debt soon. He's going to have to be dealt soon which leaves behind an
aging staff and Ken Forsch. I say...deal them for draft picks and start over.
The days of G-Money-ball are over and this team needs to ponder a real rebuild
to stay financially viable.
Bullpen and Bench: C-
Marshall is good...but not 5 mil a year good. Look for him to get dealt in the
purge which will have to happen. The rest is pretty shaky. The same goes for the
bench. Oh well...at least there's some hope in AAA.
NL Central
The
overall prediction for the NL Central - Two words: ATLANTA BRAVES.
With only Atlanta being their source of competition, St. Lou will take this
division in a walk. The Braves just don't have the pitching to keep up with the
Cards and with the Cubbies in rebuild mode and the Reds in whipping post mode,
the Cardinals will be making another post-season appearance this year.
OK...now that Cincy has stripped the Cards of 2
of their premier pitchers, a few things have changed. First off, I'm now picking
the Braves to take the division in a walk.
Here's the team-by-team breakdown of the NL Central along with their odds of a
division championship:
St. Louis Cardinals - 5:1
Hitting: B
The bats won't scare you. Or at least they
didn't last season. If they decide to show up, they will be formidable as they
aren't reliant on one or two guys. It's pretty much even keel 1-8 in this
lineup.
Fielding: C+
The guys manning the infield for the Cards get the job done. Led by Gold Glovers
Rod Carew and Tommy Harper, these guys do a decent job and have good range.
Hebner plays a good 3B while Waters manages to post average numbers at SS. The
OF is a little shakier, but Having Maddox anchoring the crew in CF helps a bit.
Starting Pitching: B+
This is what defines the Cardinals of the past 2 seasons. Led by Andy
Messersmith, this is one of the stingiest crews in all of baseball. Jim Rooker
shows it coming off his first 20-win season posting a league-leading 1.91
ERA...a mere .01 off the major league lead (posted by Catfish Hunter for the
Chicago White Sox). The only drawback here is durability. With Gary
"Moneybags" Nolan always being the perrenial health question mark, the
Cards could suffer if more than one of these guys go down. There isn't much
depth after the starting 5.
That's what I had said...now...with Nolan and
Blue gone with only Koblin and an unprooven Reuschel in to replace them...they
could be in trouble.
Bullpen and Bench: A-
The bullpen was rock solid last season. But that was last season. Gone are the
two horses, Upshaw and Taylor, in come the aging Linzy and Perranoski. They
still have the potential for greatness but look for the stock to drop as the
season progresses and the age starts to show. The bench looks solid with good
defensive backups, albiet aging ones.
Atlanta Braves - 2:1
Hitting: A-
These guys are mashers, plain and simple. With 7 guys hitting double figures (5
of whom hit over 20) in home runs last season, look for them to do it again and
just try to go and club their opponents to death. Look for their big cleanup
hitter, Lucas Luhmann to make a big bid towards that MVP trophy.
Fielding: A
The fielders here are all superb, especially on the infield. The only one
lacking huge range here is Fleming who only made 6 errors all last season up the
middle. The only real question mark is in RF with Juan "Stoneglove"
Walter. Hopefully, Sullivan will race out of CF to bail him out once in a while.
Starting Pitching: B-
Ok, they had 1 starter with a sub-2 ERA and noone with an ERA over 3.61 last
season...so why are they only a B-? Easy...not one of them won even 15 games
last year. In fact, only one of their pitchers has EVER won 15 or more:
O'Connor, who's amassed a total of 46 in 7 seasons...not a shining star. The
fact of the matter is, the only reason these guys look good is because of the
guys behind them. But...they are looking good
and with St. Lou opting for a salary dump, they are golden.
Bullpen and Bench: A+
Ok...their starters aren't great. The bullpen, however, is one of the best
around. They eat innings and batters and the real scary thing is, there are
plenty more like them sitting in AAA. The bench is scary as well as the hitting
is good enough to keep guys who could start elsewhere riding the pine.
Chicago Cubs - 10:1
Hitting: A-
They can hold their own against anyone...even the Bashing Braves...so long as
they stay healthy, which has always been the problem. Look for Otis Grant go out
and try to repeat his perfomance of 2 years ago.
Fielding: A-
They are rangy, and they don't make many errors. They won't win any gold gloves
this year, but they have in the past and it shows.
Starting Pitching: B
The pitchers taking the mound for Chicago are real good...just not with the
Cubs. I have no idea why and neither do they. Noone here is a 20-game winner and
the curse of the Goat will keep it that way. Injuries have always been a
problem; I say that the Cubs need to fry the goat and hire new trainers.
Bullpen and Bench: C
The bench isn't very deep and the bullpen suffers from "I pitch for the
Cubs"-itis. Maybe it isn't just the trainers...
Cincinatti Reds - 15:1
Hitting: D-
Copeland is ok. Cey needs to bring up his average and he'll be a star. Aside
from that...dear god, someone help them.
Fielding: B
Ok, they're not so bad here. Led by the defensive stylings of Bill Buckner (god
that sounds weird to me), they are a crew that will do the job of watching the
home runs fly over their head well (In the late innings now that they have a
good starting four)
Starting Pitching: B
There are a good group of pitchers here...the problem is, they aren't ready yet.
They got Nguyen and Coleman out of FA, but dear god, why? They should develop
what they have, not send it out everyday to get slaughtered. Ok...now they also
have Blue and Nolan, but Nolan is a health risk and Blue hasn't won more than
14. They have a good Rotation but every one has some kind of knock on them (age,
health, or past effectiveness). They could use one more guy to solidify this
rotation and provide backup in case Nolan goes down.
Bullpen and Bench: F
Unproven and ultimately, ineffective. That's going to be the story come year's
end.
NL West
The
overall prediction for the NL West: This will be the division to watch in the NL
this season.
Post re-alignment, the NL West has come out to be the division which has no
clear-cut frontrunner prior to opening day. Both Houston and San Francisco, past
league and World Series champs look to go into this season with guns blazing and
payrolls bleeding out their ears. Not to be left out, San Diego is a young team,
poised on a breakout year while the Dodgers have enough hitting to turn a few
heads.
Here's the team-by-team breakdown of the NL West along with their odds of a
division championship:
Houston Astros - 3:1
Hitting: B-
They have power but haven't shown much in the average department. The key factor
will be getting a good year out of their veteran hitters like Andreasen and
Trudeau while getting their young sluggers, Dienstein and Romo, to play to their
potential and come up with the timely runs. The addition of Victor Steele will
only increase their run production in place of aging all-star, Gary Oman.
Fielding: B-
Combine stellar D at 1st and 2nd with solid D at third and you'd think you have
a good infield...but when you have a big hole at SS...you are in trouble. New
aquisition, Pedro Matutes, is light hitting and even lighter fielding. That C-
range combined with Andreasen's age means a ton of balls going into left field.
Scherr's D isn't going to get me to cheer much either, nor will those of his
outfielding cohorts. Of the three, Trudeau has the steadiest hand, but will see
the least action behind the rangy Dienstein and Sater.
Starting Pitching: A-/C-
These guys are good...real good...or are they? Mired in that category of tons of
potential, his starting 5 have had flashes of brilliance, but the only one with
a 20-win season is Marichal who hasn't seen one of those since his days with the
Giants. Without a horse to step up and lead the pack, that A- drops to a C-.
Bullpen and Bench: B-
The bullpen is solid, especially in the closer slot with Hernandez anchoring the
group. There is nothing dominating about his pen or bench, however, but it's
good enough.
San Francisco Giants - 3:1
Hitting: B+
Talk about underachieving...aside from 3-time MVP, Henry Harter and 1Bman, John
Higgins, this has been a team of ups and downs. Hurley, who had been stellar in
2 prior years, hit an abysmal .262 last season and will need to rebound along
with his CF counterpart, young Nicanor "What the hell kind of name is
that?" Pitillias who hit way below his potential at a mediocre .273 in the
leadoff slot (a performance which lost him the job for a while). This is a team
with the potential for great power and has always been good with the timely hit.
If they can find a good 3B, and if rookie call-up, Rich Myers can play to snuff,
they will have a shot at being the best bats in the NL. Look for this team to
try and find a replacement for aging Gus Bell in RF too.
Fielding: B+
Higgins plays fairly error free at 1B, Myers should just be error free. Add to
that a former gold glove at SS with Harter and a decent glove in Velloso at 3B,
and you have a very solid infield. The outfield is led by young Pitillias who's
the best defensive CF since Willie Mays. Hurley will be adequate but expect Bell
to get yanked late in games to protect that lead. Behind the plate, Torre won't
do much defensively, but that's why Derrick keeps his gear on late in the game.
Starting Rotation: A
This rotation is just plain disgusting. No wonder more than half of the team's
budget is here. Only one of them has a predicted ERA of over 3.00...Jerry Reuss
with a 3.02. 4 of them have Cy Young trophies on their mantles. Seaver and
Koosman are in the prime of their careers, Dunning still K's over 300 batters
per season, and 6-time gold glove pitcher, Gatsby, is looking to rebound from an
off year where he posted a 3.52 ERA. The experience and durability of these guys
can only be matched by the Mets, Cardinals, and White Sox.
Bullpen and Bench: C
Will the real bullpen, please stand up? The eyesore for this team the past
several years has been a bullpen that just can't get the job done. I've lost
count in the number of closers they've used, but young Jeff Matthews has the job
now. Let's hope he can keep it. As for everyone else, they had better start
throwing something other than change-ups if they want to keep their jobs. The
Bench...well...it's old. Only two (Gamble and Derrick) are in their 20's and
Derrick isn't going to be in for his bat much. They are solid though. That is
why they are on the bench and not in the lineup.
San Diego Padres - 7:1
Hitting: C+
They are young. They are unproven. They have lots (and LOTS) of potential. They
are going to be good...very good. The question is when? I don't think it's going
to be this year, but you never know.
Fielding: C+
The infield is average at best...they are probably going to be mediocre though.
This team basically has to hope for a ton of fly balls, because their outfield
will be stellar -- especially with Baker and Evans anchoring them. The question
mark is LF, but their options look solid.
Starting Pitching: B
They have 3 good pitchers (Richard, Splittorff, and Gullett) but 2 who will just
scrape by. That isn't going to cut it in a league with the likes of the Mets,
Cardinals, and Giants...not unless Richard can win 30 by himself which I
wouldn't put past him.
Bullpen and Bench: B-
The bench looks pretty solid with average bats and gloves. There are some decent
backups there. The bullpen looks like SF's...yo-yo ball...which pen will show
up?
Los Angeles Dodgers - 12:1
Hitting: B-
They haven't shown up yet. Shew and Horton are rock-solid, but 2 guys ain't
gonna carry you to the promised land. There is potential here, but not enough to
get past Houston or SF at the moment.
Fielding: A-
Their big shiny bright spot hosts some of the rangiest ballplayers around. If
they can keep their errors down, they might turn their pitching staff into a
pack of stars.
Starting Pitching: C-
Well...there's that Stoneman guy...but he's past his peak...then
there's...hmm...not much. Ain't happening here folks. The best they can hope for
is for their D to bail them out of a few runs. Overpaying for Bob Carrie isn't
going to do very much.
Bullpen and Bench: C-
They have the Goose (who is awesome)...and that's it. Aside from Gossage, this
bullpen stinks. If they can have games that go right from starter to Gossage,
they might turn a few heads, but that isn't going to happen all that much. The
bench however is in that LA mold...good potential and not much else. These guys
can bash a few coming off the pine if they decide to show up.